Can Fusion Happen Without Trump?
Political shifts, public-private partnerships, and the race against China are shaping the funding—and future—of commercial fusion energy.
In a recent article on Axios, “Fusion Industry Makes Its Case to GOP,” by Nick Sobczyk (sorry for the firewall link), Rep. Chuck Fleischmann, the House's top energy appropriator and co-chair of the fusion energy caucus predicted the Trump administration would be "pro-fusion," but wouldn't have the same "fiscal appetite" for it as the Biden administration.” During the new Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s confirmation hearing, he made the following comment about Fusion Energy, “This [fusion] is an exciting new technology with huge room to run and has moved very rapidly – the last decade has seen more progress than in my lifetime – and I would love to see that come to commercial power in the next decade.” these two statements begs two questions:
What level of funding will fusion energy receive funding in the 2025 budget?
Can the private sector fusion energy deliver commercial fusion without public funding?
The Executive Orders As Opening Salvos
Clearly, the new administration has been straightforward and open about what they like and dislike in energy policy based on the executive orders they have enacted. They advocate expanding fossil fuels, nuclear, geothermal, and rare earth minerals. It is clear that when they don’t like something, renewables in general and wind power specifically, they are not bashful about calling it out. I hope that since fusion energy was not called out as a “disliked” energy technology, it could have tacit support or at least no overt opposition.
The Trump Administration and Fusion Energy
At this point, we don’t know what the final answer on what will come out of the budget sausage-making process, and we hope to see fusion energy receive increased funding year over year for the following reasons:
The FIA and member companies are all spending on lobbyists to drive funding.
Investment in fusion energy will expand our ability to support power demands.
Trump’s desire to beat China in almost everything.
The fundamental greed to capture the multi-trillion dollar market before China does. Look at what happened with the announcement of DeepSeek.
Fusion energy benefits national defense and nuclear energy waste material management programs.
The billionaires who are invested in fusion energy that were present in the Capital Rotunda during the inauguration.
Politics is not always logical and is often more emotional and situational than we would like to admit. I think leading in fusion energy to beat China, recycle nuclear wastes, and expand power generation is a “good look” for the Trump administration. Additionally, it can create manufacturing and construction jobs, it can help reshore the supply chain of critical technologies/materials to the US and allied nations, and in the end it doesn't cost the government much compared to other options, and he gets a win even if he just leaves it alone.
The FIA Makes the Case for Fusion Energy to the 119th Congress
In a letter by the Fusion Industry Association (FIA), CEO Andrew Holland championed the case for fusion energy and funding fusion programs.
Public and Private Partnerships Continue to Happen Globally
Private fusion energy companies and almost all national-level Fusion programs would not be as far along as they are without public-private partnerships. The UK just allocated £410M to advance Fusion Energy, and the EU, Japan, Korea, China, and other nations continue to invest in it just as different countries have leveraged US research. I expect much of this research to be shared and presented via peer-reviewed papers to drive the industry forward. For the reasons stated above, I believe that the US will continue to make public investments in fusion energy if, for no other reason than for the benefits of nuclear energy waste management and national defense programs.
Profit Versus Progress
To paraphrase Gordan Gekko from Wall Street, “Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.” While not the most altruistic quote in history, it does exemplify that the VCs and billionaires who have invested in fusion energy are motivated to produce abundant, cost-effective energy at a profit. The underlying greed of our capitalist economy and fusion energy is getting to a tipping point where private industry can run with fusion energy and create viable commercial enterprises. Many will debate whether we have reached that point, but I believe we are closer to it than further away. I posit that fusion is no longer “always 30 years away.”
Public research facilities like NIF and ITER are not focused on commercial applications, while private companies can focus on specific applications (electricity, propulsion, medical isotope, etc). This is the “essence of the evolutionary spirit,” which can enable them to go faster and deliver sooner than many skeptics expect. Public-private partnerships are preferred to drive long-term research and help educate and train the Ph. D.s and engineers required for this industry, and these partnerships significantly accelerate progress, but in the worst case, I think fusion energy is at the tipping point where it can move forward either way.
Has Fusion Energy Reached Critical Mass?
Helion Energy raised $425M in new financing, surpassing the $1B in funding this past week. Commonwealth Fusion has ~$2B in funding, and Pacific Fusion announced $900M last year. Fusion energy has a level of funding and supporters that may have put it over the top to make commercial fusion energy a reality sooner than most think possible. Yes, technical challenges remain, but if we look at the trajectory of AI LLMs and the investments that got OpenAI to a commercial level on November 30, 2022, after decades of university and public-funded research, it is not hard to see that fusion energy could achieve the goal of cost-effective grid power if left to their own devices by the Trump administration.