“Fusion’s Gonna Work,” Says Sam Altman.
Tech titans and AI are driving the next energy revolution.
Fusion’s Gonna Work…
Bloomberg published a wide-ranging interview with Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, this month (links to the interview and podcast), in which Sam Altman boldly states. “Fusion’s gonna work.” to which the reporter, Josh Tyrangiel, asks, “Um. On what time frame?” and Altman replies, “Soon. Well, soon there will be a demonstration of net-gain fusion. You then have to build a system that doesn’t break. You have to scale it up. You have to figure out how to build a factory—build a lot of them—and you have to get regulatory approval. And that will take, you know, years altogether? But I would expect Helion will show you that fusion works soon.”
No Free Lunch
This exchange summarizes the great Fusion debate. Needless to say, I believe that the technical challenges of fusion energy can be solved cost-effectively and help address our power appetites and do so with a less damaging impact than other options because “there is no free lunch in power generation.” This means that we have to invent new sources of power generation. It is easier to be a skeptic than a supporter, but we must find a new answer before the proverbial gig is up. I think this scene from Landman helps describe the lack of free lunch regarding power generation.
Yes, there are numerous issues, but fusion energy is one of the few technologies that can be used as a plug-and-play replacement for fossil fuel heat sources in power generation.
Big Brains and Billionaires
Many will say that Sam Altman is not a physicist. He did not work at a national lab. What does he know about fusion energy? Which is a fair question and/or criticism. However, if Mr. Altman is crazy, he has some impressive company. For the doubters, you have to ask, “Can all these savvy investors and the people who lead fusion companies all be wrong?” While the doubters might be proven right in the long run, I am betting they will be wrong, and that “fusion is gonna work.” Below is a list of some billionaires backing fusion, which reads like a who's who of tech industry titans (and who have been right more than they have been wrong):
Jeff Bezos - Founder of Amazon, has invested in General Fusion through his venture capital firm, Bezos Expeditions.
Bill Gates - Co-founder of Microsoft, is backing Commonwealth Fusion Systems through Breakthrough Energy Ventures.
Peter Thiel - Co-founder of PayPal, has invested in Helion Energy through Mithril Capital Management.
Sam Altman - CEO of OpenAI, led a $500 million funding round for Helion Energy.
Paul Allen - Co-founder of Microsoft, backed Tri Alpha Energy (now TAE Technologies) before his passing.
Mark Zuckerberg - Co-founder of Facebook, has invested in Commonwealth Fusion Systems.
Dustin Moskovitz - Co-founder of Facebook, has invested in Commonwealth Fusion Systems.
Masayoshi Son - CEO of Softbank, has invested in Blue Laser Fusion
Vinod Khosla - Co-founder of Sun Microsystems, has invested in Commonwealth Fusion Systems.
John Doerr - Chairman of Kleiner Perkins, has invested in Commonwealth Fusion Systems.
George Soros - Founder of Soros Fund Management, has invested in Helion Energy.
Richard Branson - Founder of Virgin Group, has invested in Commonwealth Fusion. Systems.
Small AI Cogs, Big Fusion Machines
Big problems are solved when broken down into small pieces, solved in parallel, and refined using the combined results. This is precisely why I trust Altman's statements about fusion. AI is a tool that can help simulate and systematize the small cogs of the bigger fusion machine, making it happen faster and more cost-effectively than at any time in human history. As we move toward the AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), described by Leopold Aschenbrenner in his essay, “Situational Analysis: The Decade Ahead.” The rate of scientific problem-solving and engineering solutions we can develop in the next decade will probably exceed all of our previous human history. At the end of the day, this is why I concur with Mr. Altman, the billionaires listed above, and the brilliant minds working at fusion companies and global national labs facilities.
Altman is Edison, not Tesla.
He is leading and leveraging an army of brilliant minds and AI tools to build the GE of AI. He is not necessarily inventing it all himself and does not need to. He has to leverage other people's ideas and address the massive capital requirements, navigate government policy issues, and partner with fusion companies to keep going until we make fusion work. Like everyone who gets to this level, he is not without detractors, questionable decisions, and flexible ethics (AI training, etc.), but what he has built has already changed the world. He needs fusion energy to fulfill his greater AGI and superintelligence ambitions. Fusion energy requires the scale of AI, AGI, and superintelligence solutions to continue advancing the technology. This symbiotic relationship between AI and Fusion energy should continue accelerating practical, cost-effective fusion energy because many people leading the future simply need fusion to work.