The Elephant in The Fusion Room is...When?
We have witnessed a remarkable acceleration of fusion energy progress in the past year.
The New York Times has written multiple articles about Fusion energy over the past few years, the latest of which was published on November 15th by Raymond Zhong, entitled “The Quest to Build a Star on Earth.” This was another attempt to answer the biggest question in fusion energy.
When will Fusion Provide Power to the Grid?
Helion Energy has said they have orders for 2028 for Microsoft and Nucor Steel. A survey of the Fusion Industry Association members leans toward 2035, and the DOE roadmap indicated the second half of the 2030s. Needless to say, fusion energy is an ambitious task, and we have witnessed a remarkable acceleration of fusion energy progress in the past year, surpassing the advancements of the last half of the 29th century. This rapid pace, driven by global public-private research, AI-aided simulations and design, and the increasing electricity demand, instills a sense of optimism and hope for the future of energy technology. But, like everyone reading this article, we are eager to know:
When will fusion provide power to the grid?
Will fusion energy deliver abundant and cost-effective electricity?
How fast can we deploy fusion to fulfill our energy appetite?
We are seeing an acceleration of operational breakthroughs, increased global funding, and competition from China, motivating the West to win this race. This is especially true in the commercialization of fusion energy, as China is seeking to catch up with the West as it has in many other technologies, while the US DOE, UKAEA, and many other nation-state research organizations are shifting to drive toward commercialization.
The DOE Roadmap to Fusion
In 2024, the Department of Energy published a new roadmap for fusion energy to accelerate its development, aiming to enable commercially relevant fusion pilot plants in the 2030s. The DOE plans to realign its Fusion Energy Sciences program, develop a national fusion S&T roadmap aligned with industry needs, and leverage public-private partnerships to accelerate research and development. The strategy is built on three pillars:
Key elements of the strategy include addressing long-lead commercialization risks, such as ensuring isotope fuel supplies, developing a nonproliferation framework, and preparing for waste management. The DOE also focuses on workforce development, community engagement, and equity considerations. To support these efforts, the department is expanding international collaborations, fostering interagency cooperation, and strengthening partnerships with the private sector, academia, and other stakeholders. The strategy acknowledges the challenges ahead but emphasizes the potential of fusion to provide a safe, abundant, and zero-carbon-emitting source of reliable primary energy.
“When it comes to the big goal of moving humanity into a fusion-powered age, more companies could mean more “shots on goal. When anyone scores, everybody benefits.” —Jean-Paul Allain, Head of the Department of Energy’s FES.
Faster Fusion Breakthroughs
Below is a sampling of some notable breakthroughs in fusion energy in 2024. We could have provided another 50 more without any trouble because the rate of progress is accelerating faster than at any time in history. The Fusion industry and researchers will need to go even quicker in 2025 to hit some of the more ambitious targets. The most significant science and engineering tasks are being addressed at a promising clip, and optimism for the future of fusion is not unwarranted.
Record-Breaking Fusion Energy Output - Scientists near Oxford set a new record by sustaining 69 megajoules of fusion energy for five seconds using only 0.2 milligrams of fuel.
Increased Government Funding - The U.S. government significantly increased funding for fusion energy research, allocating $1.4 billion for the Department of Energy's Office of Fusion Energy Sciences and other programs.
Private Commercial Fusion - Several fusion companies, including Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Helion Energy, and General Fusion, began constructing facilities to demonstrate their technological approaches.
AI-Controlled Fusion: Researchers at Princeton University demonstrated the potential of artificial intelligence to control fusion reactions more dynamically.
Laser Facility at Colorado State University - Marvel Fusion announced a $150 million partnership with Colorado State University to build a powerful short-pulse laser system for fusion research.
US and UK Regulatory - The U.S. and UK made progress in establishing a separate regulatory framework for fusion energy, distinguishing it from nuclear fission regulations.
International Collaboration: The UK, EU, Japan, Korea, and the US advanced their partnership to accelerate the development of fusion technologies.
Private Funding Now Over $8B - The Fusion Industry Association’s 2024 Global Fusion Energy report states that commercial fusion companies raised more than $7.1 billion in private investment through 2023. In 2024, private fusion investments exceeded $1.4 billion in the first nine months from Pacific Fusion, Zap Energy, Xcimer Energy, Type One, Marvell, and others.
Advancements in AI and high-performance computing—A report from the Clean Air Task Force (CATF) highlighted how artificial intelligence and high-performance computing accelerate the development of fusion energy technologies. These tools improve plasma control, optimize reactor designs, and enhance fusion performance.
OpenStar FIrst Plasma with LDR - New Zealand’s OpenStar achieved the first plasma with an innovative levitated dipole reactor (LDR). It aims to revolutionize the industry with a simplified design and lower-cost operation. Using advanced computational modeling and novel plasma control techniques, OpenStar presents a compelling alternative to traditional tokamaks and stellarators.
Top 5 Challenges Still Facing Fusion Energy
While the top 5 issues could be debated, here is our list of the top 5 technical challenges that remain to be solved for fusion energy:
Plasma Confinement and Stability - Maintaining the scorching plasma in a stable, confined state for long periods is crucial. This involves developing better magnetic confinement systems or inertial confinement techniques to prevent the plasma from touching the reactor walls and losing energy.
Materials Development - It is a significant challenge to create materials that can withstand the intense heat, radiation, and neutron bombardment inside a fusion reactor. These materials must maintain their structural integrity and properties under extreme conditions for extended periods.
Tritium Breeding and Fuel Cycle - Developing efficient systems to breed tritium fuel from lithium and managing the fuel cycle is critical for sustainable fusion energy. This includes ensuring adequate tritium production, handling, and recycling within the fusion machine.
Heat Extraction and Energy Conversion - Designing systems to effectively extract heat from the fusion reaction and convert it into usable electricity is a significant challenge. This involves developing advanced blanket designs and efficient energy conversion systems.
Scaling Up to Commercial Size - Transitioning from experimental reactors to commercially viable power plants presents numerous engineering challenges. These include increasing the size and power output of fusion devices while maintaining plasma stability, ensuring reliable operation, and achieving cost-effectiveness.
These challenges are interconnected and require advancements in multiple scientific and engineering disciplines. The DOE's Fusion Energy Strategy 2024 aims to address these issues through coordinated efforts across public and private sectors, leveraging new technologies and innovative approaches to accelerate fusion energy development.
Trump, Elon, and The Future Fusion
As the United States prepares for a second Trump administration, the future of fusion energy research and development and the government's funding level are still being determined. Now that Elon Musk has confirmed that he will co-head the Department of Government Efficiency, we will have to wait and see what his recommendations for fusion will be. If he wants to “Occupy Mars,” fusion-powered spacecraft and habitats would help.
Fusion energy stands at a critical juncture, with recent breakthroughs and substantial private investments fueling optimism about the future of the fusion energy landscape. However, significant technical, economic, and regulatory challenges remain. As the United States enters a second Trump/Elon administration, the future of fusion energy research and development hangs in the balance. The industry's ability to navigate these political waters while continuing to make technological progress in the private sector will be crucial in determining whether fusion can fulfill its promise as a clean, cost-effective energy source for the future.