One Trip Around the Fusion Sun
Reflections on a year in fusion energy: the power of innovation, strategic imperatives, and the race for global leadership.
I have made the joke that one year ago, when I heard the word "fusion," I thought about restaurants. I have been a science-curious person for my 59 trips around the solar sun. Every day, the world gives us new things to be curious about, from the discoveries of the James Web Telescope to AI to CRISPR and many other topics. Being able to indulge my innate curiosity easily is one of the best things about living in the Internet age. Before I joined the industry, I learned about fusion energy by reading articles and watching documentaries and videos on YouTube. I have also been fortunate to work with some brilliant people who openly and enthusiastically share their knowledge and have a nuclear engineer son to ask questions when I get lost in technology.
Vision, Faith, History, Human Tenacity
Like many people who will read this blog, I grew up on science fiction and believed that humanity can do almost anything with the right people, funding, and, most importantly, purpose. Realistically, not all tech is used for good - we often create new, unforeseen problems while trying to solve others. But overall, we are better off globally for the investment and results of technological innovation. Humanity can have a vision of the future, the faith and audacity to think that they can make it real, and the tenacity to see it through, which is the basis of our modern society with all its wonder and warts.
We are witnessing, right now and in real-time, one of these great innovation cycles with OpenAI as Sam Altman moves the company from non-profit to for-profit. Will that be good or bad? Only time will tell, but once a technology exists, it is better to work towards and with it, than to let it run wild. Will Altman become the Rockefeller of the 21st century? Or will it be the commercialization winner of fusion energy, which will power this AI age, as Bob Mumgaard said at last year's Fusion Industry Association (FIA) Policy Conference? The answer is both. Brilliant people will use technology to change the world and create business empires. I am still hopeful that, in the end, humanity will manage the unintended consequences and be better off overall.
Observation of One Trip Around the Fusion World
Here are some observations from my first trip around the Fusion Sun: what I expected, what has been the most interesting, and what has surprised me about the fusion energy world.
Things That Were Expected:
Most of my career has been in AI, IT, Cloud Data Centers, Chips, and Cybersecurity. I have been fortunate to work and observe with some of the most intelligent people in those industries, including many billionaires investing in fusion energy companies.
The willingness to invest billions to make trillions. The sheer scale of the opportunity to rebuild global power production is arguably this century's most significant business opportunity outside of AI.
Innovation for delivering fusion energy to the world is accelerating, pulling commercialization estimates into the 2030s.
The brain power in fusion energy is second to none. It is frankly humbling to work with and be inspired every day.
Fusion is a tight-knit community of people with entrepreneurial and altruistic objectives that are equally measured.
Fusion will not be free; it is part of capitalism, but it should be affordable, plentiful, and positively impact the world.
Ambitions are unbridled, and they have to be to create such an audacious dream.
What has been the most interesting:
How little the world outside the fusion community understands the change coming? It reminds me of the first time I used Netscape and saw how life and business would never be the same. That’s how I feel about fusion energy.
I am learning how government budgets work and how to pass policies and appropriations (at least in the US). I always knew it wasn't straightforward, but it is a science and an art that most people don’t appreciate.
I am learning the names of fusion leaders who will be household names in a decade. I have had the opportunity to work with the following: Tesla, Bezos, Musk, Gates, and many other names that will be remembered throughout history.
Here are the names likely to become household names over the next decade: Mumgaard, Conway, Kurtley, Twinney, and many more we have yet to learn.
We are in fusion energy's “Wild West” phase, which reminds me of the early days of networking, cloud computing, operating systems, and computing when dozens of companies were still fighting for market leadership.
Following smart money, genius entrepreneurs who invest in a new segment probably land in a good place: Gates, Bezos, Altman, Khosla, Branson, Zuckerberg, and so on.
What surprised me:
There is a lack of strategic commitment to control this trillion-dollar business. Fusion energy is a strategic imperative, not a science-fair project. This means the industry requires moonshot-level resources, but China seems to be the only country making that commitment. The US and its allies must increase funding, especially at the public level.
The supply chain dependence on China. I probably should not have been, but I was and continue to be surprised each day by how inextricably linked our economies are and the risk that presents. It is one of the reasons I volunteered to be part of the FIA Supply Chain Committee.
Most jobs that will support fusion energy will require transferable skills from many industries, such as aerospace and the current power industry. For every plasma physicist, the fusion industry will need hundreds of others to manufacture, supply, and sell.
The derivative applications for fusion energy that are unrelated to electricity include medical work to treat cancer, space exploration, and marine propulsion. This will be just like the Apollo programs, helping to create dozens of new products and industries.
China - Fusion and AI
From the space race to the Cold War, competition among nations and companies has created innovation faster. Today, the simple facts are that President Xi and CCP policies are creating many competitive races ranging from AI to consumer goods (how many of us knew who Temu was five years ago) to social media with TikTok to fusion energy. To paraphrase the expression, “Don't hate the player, hate the game,” We are competing with China. They win some, and we win some, but make no mistake: Fusion and AI are competitive races we must win in the long run.
To my surprise, simply acknowledging that we are competing with China and that fusion is a business has garnered some pointed pushback. I understand that the US and allied political and business are not purely charitable, but neither are China's CCP. It seems evident that winning the race for AI and fusion races is mandatory and vital for the economic and strategic balance of power for the rest of this century. I would rather have US/Allied-led policies than those of President Xi's CCP.
The Magnificent Unknowns
The space program in the 1960s provided dozens of benefits and created industries that most people forget came from the desire to go to the moon and win the space race. The advancements in material science and computing gave us the phone I am typing on now, GPS, and even Velcro. Fusion progress will also lead to dozens of derivative technologies that will be magnificent and still are unknown to us today.
A Tech Capitalistic View
As you can probably tell from my earlier references, I believe technology is a powerful force that benefits humanity. I think innovation is vital to enhancing human existence. I am also a capitalist, and I expect the business side of technology to prevail and create new business empires. Technology is a tool; it can provide significant benefits but will often create many unforeseen consequences. The commercial empires built on fusion will benefit the world if the US and our allied nations win this race and keep the IP, supply chain, and manufacturing based in our nations.
What I Hope for Year 2 Around The Fusion Sun
I hope we can create a CHIPS ACT, a moonshot program, or whatever you want to call it, to advance fusion energy to a top strategic level for the US. We must continue providing leadership in this and AI to ensure our strategic future for the rest of this century. It is a simple choice; we have the ability and resources, but do we have the will to take the hard path, rebuild manufacturing capabilities, and seize control of our destiny? I think we do; I am an optimist, even in a highly polarized environment. Every generation has faced opportunities and tests. I hope we rise to this opportunity and pass this test.