$2.5B Fusion Supply Chain in 2024?
Guest Blog Post by Shaun Walsh, CMO, Peak Nano
United States Senator Everett Dirksen allegedly said about federal government spending: “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.” Fusion is often positioned as a utopian vision for clean, affordable, and plentiful energy. While I fervently hope this is true, we must acknowledge that this optimistic future of fusion-on-the-grid based on a Fusion Industry Association Survey is expected around 2035. However, the money spent to achieve this ideal objective is very real, and billions are being spent today.
What Will Be Spent on Fusion Energy in 2024?
Let's look at the billions allocated to be spent in 2024. While there is no precise accounting, an FIA survey of their members indicates these organizations will spend more than $7.6 billion building fusion machines over the next five years. Using this data, combined with publicly stated spending plans from the governmental programs listed below, we estimate fusion energy spending could as high as $2.5B in 2024 based on the number of public and private programs underway.
Private Fusion Companies—Based on the latest data from the FIA, these companies have raised over $7B (which is closer to $8B with Marvel, Zap, and others). The FIA Fusion Supply Chain report shared that supply chain spending was $612M, up from $485M in 2022. If the same year-over-year growth applies for 2024, estimating a spend of $750M is safe.
United States - The 2024 Appropriations Bill allocated $790 million to the Department of Energy’s Office of Fusion Energy Sciences, and the National Ignition Facility and elsewhere received $690 million in a separate budget allocation through the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA).
European Union - The European Union (EU) is expected to spend €120 million on fusion energy in 2024.
United Kingdom - The UK government's support will further cement that position, with £650 million spent through 2027.
Germany - Germany will provide more than €1 billion for fusion research, with an additional €370 million over the next five years. As part of the new programmatic spending, up to €100 million per year will be made available to fusion companies.
South Korea - The South Korean government will invest KRW1,200bn ($866m) to develop fusion reactors and related infrastructure. The Ministry of Science & ICT announced this at a meeting of the National Nuclear Fusion Committee, chaired by Minister Lee Jong Ho.
Japan - Japan has already invested 400 billion yen ($2.8 billion) in research at NIFS and plans to leverage and commercialize fusion.China - The WSJ estimates China will spend $1.5B on fusion energy development.
Canada - Canadian Nuclear Laboratories and Business Development Bank of Canada have announced a lead investment of CAD10 million (USD7.3 million) each in Canadian private fusion developer General Fusion.
The Fusion Report Estimates $2.5B in 2024 Fusion Spending
Here is some quick fusion math: if we assume funding is used 50% for buying parts and materials and 50% for humans and services, then based on the public data we have been able to source above, we assume spending will look something like this:
$2.5B Fusion Supply Chain Spend:
$750M China government (not all allocated funds are spent in one year)
$750M private fusion companies
$500M US government (not all allocated funds are spent in one year)
$215M UK government (based on a 3-year spending plan)
$130M EU funding (for 2024 of current allocations)
$100M Germany (based on 5-year spending estimate)
$86M South Korea (based on a 10-year program)
Fusion Industry Market Map
Where are those funds, those billions of dollars for fusion energy, going in 2024 and beyond? The chart below shows some of the critical supply chain companies required to make the fusion energy future happen:
A Billion Here, A Billion There, Equals Real Money
One thing is clear… real money, and billions of it, is being spent publicly and privately to build the future of fusion energy. Developing a robust and sustainable supply chain is not just a necessity but an urgent priority for the industry. Supply chain companies must seize the day and create a secure and sustainable supply chain to meet the demands of this new industry. 2024 is just the start of the billions in spending on fusion energy to drive $1T in market revenue.